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IATA says overall bookings down 82% for the year to date; demand for long-haul travel “close to zero”
June 19th 2020
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) said this week airlines would need to be flexible and agile as the absence of any meaningful forward bookings made planning for the return of demand for air travel a challenging process. Read More »
With profitability expected to continue to be under a lot of pressure, IATA reiterated calls for government support and for the suspension of rules on take-off and landing slots – commonly known as the 80/20 use-it-or-lose-it rule – to be extended until March 2021.
“People are returning to the skies but the horizon of uncertainty about the COVID-19 crisis is extending," IATA director general and CEO, Alexandre de Juniac, told reporters this week.
"Forward bookings are down and people are hedging their travel bets by booking closer to the time of travel."
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IATA statistics showed overall bookings were 82% lower so far in calendar 2020 compared with a year ago. The booking profile of those who were intending to travel also has changed. IATA said 41% of all bookings made in May 2020 were for trips within the next three days, compared with 18% of bookings for the same time horizon a year earlier.
At the other end of the scale, 29% of bookings were for travel on a date more than 20 days in the future, compared with 49% previously.
IATA chief economist, Brian Pearce, said this made planning for the upcoming northern winter scheduling season, from the end of October 2020 to April 2021, very difficult.
"The forward visibility airlines typically had in their bookings, in the advanced bookings, had allowed them to plan schedules with some degree of certainty. It is just not there today," Pearce told reporters this week.
"There's just very little if any visibility and particularly not for the months beyond the summer. And airlines, for their winter season schedules, need to be planning now."
IATA said demand for long-haul travel remained "close to zero". At this time of a typical year, airlines would have sold about 14% of tickets for flights in the first week of November – the early part of the winter scheduling season – some 22 weeks away. However, current bookings for November 1-7, 2020 showed tickets had been sold to only 5% of the 2019 number of passengers, IATA said.
"Demand is still rather weak," Pearce said and added international travel would remain below 2019 levels until at least 2023.
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An extension of the waiver on the 80/20 rule for aircraft slots – where airlines are able to retain their take-off and landing slots at congested airports for the following year if they utilise 80% of their allocation in any given scheduling season – would give airlines much needed flexibility to plan schedules in response to market demand without worrying about losing access to particular routes.
"There were good reasons why the 80-20 rule was waived for the summer season. Regulators should apply the same common sense approach again and waive the rule for the winter season,” de Juniac said.
"Airlines need to focus on meeting what consumers want today, without trying to defend the slots needed for what their schedules might look like a year from now.”
