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Global airline lobby association says risk of contracting COVID-19 on a flight very low
October 9th 2020
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) said this week data that showed how rare the incidence of COVID-19 transmission on board an aircraft has been during the pandemic should reassure travellers the risk of contracting the disease on a flight was low. Read More »
There have been 44 cases of COVID-19 reported since the start of 2020 where the point of transmission was thought to have been associated with a flight, according to figures from IATA published overnight.
While IATA noted there was "no way to establish an exact tally of possible flight-associated cases", it said liaison with airlines and public health authorities, as well as a review of available literature, found onboard transmission was not common or widespread.
IATA medical advisor, David Powell, said the vast majority of published cases occurred before the wearing of face coverings inflight became widespread.
"The risk of a passenger contracting COVID-19 while onboard appears very low," Dr Powell said in a statement.
"With only 44 identified potential cases of flight-related transmission among 1.2 billion travellers, that’s one case for every 27 million travellers. We recognise this may be an underestimate but even if 90% of the cases were unreported, it would be one case for every 2.7 million travellers.
"We think these figures are extremely reassuring."
IATA said computational fluid dynamics (CFD) research conducted by Airbus, Boeing and Embraer in their aircraft confirmed airflow systems did control the movement of particles in the cabin and limited the spread of viruses.
Airbus's study found potential exposure was lower when seated side by side on an aircraft than when people were six feet (1.83m) apart in other indoor spaces such as an office, classroom or supermarket.
“After multiple, highly-detailed simulations using the most accurate scientific methods available, we have concrete data which reveals the aircraft cabin offers a much safer environment than indoor public spaces,” Airbus Engineering and the leader of the Airbus Keep Trust in Air Travel Initiative, Bruno Fargeon, said in the IATA statement.
Boeing tracked how particles from coughing and breathing moved around the cabin and modelled the number of particles that entered the breathing space of the other passengers and compared that to other environments.
"Based on the airborne particle count, passengers sitting next to one another on an airplane is the same as standing more than seven feet (or two meters) apart in a typical building environment," Boeing Confident Travel Initiative chief engineer, Dan Freeman, said.
Embraer senior vice-president of engineering, technology and strategy, Luis Carlos Affonso, said: "Our message today is that because of the technology and procedures in place, you can fly safely – all the research demonstrates this. In fact, the cabin of a commercial aircraft is one of the safer spaces available anywhere during this pandemic."
IATA said there were multiple layers of safety in place for those travelling by air, such as health screening prior to the flight, the use of contactless processes and the use of masks throughout the journey.
The airline lobby group has also called for all international passengers to be tested prior to departure as a key plank in restarting air travel, which has been effectively shut down due to travel restrictions and border closures brought in by governments around the world to curb the spread of the coronavirus.
IATA director general and CEO, Alexandre de Juniac, said there was "no single silver-bullet measure" that would enable everyone to live and travel safely in the age of COVID-19.
"But the combination of measures that are being put in place is reassuring travellers the world over that COVID-19 has not defeated their freedom to fly," de Juniac said.
"The risk of contracting the virus on board appears to be in the same category as being struck by lightning."
Boeing lifts Asia-Pacific delivery forecast
Asia-Pacific Airlines are expected to take delivery of 17,485 commercial aircraft in the next two decades, Boeing said this week.
The regional forecast, in Boeing's annual Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), was up 0.5% from 17,390 new aircraft deliveries in the 2019-2038 report.
The Asia-Pacific sector, which Boeing defines as China, Northeast Asia, Oceania, South Asia and Southeast Asia, is the only region to have its outlook for the next 20 years increased, with expected deliveries in the six other regions covered by the OEM’s forecast are lower in 2020 compared with 2019.
Overall, the CMO projected airlines would need 43,110 new aircraft deliveries between now and 2039, down 2.1% from 44,040 new aircraft in the 2019-2038 report.
"The 2020 CMO reflects a combination of the unprecedented near-term industry disruption and the long-term resilience we have seen for decades," the report said.
Asia-Pacific's forecast of 17,485 new aircraft deliveries for the next two decades would be 500 regional jets – defined as aircraft with 90 seats or fewer – 13,320 single aisle aircraft, 3,400 wide-bodies and 265 freighters.
In line with expectations that the single-aisle segment would lead the recovery from COVID-19, the number of regional jet deliveries was more than double the 210 forecast in the 2019 CMO. The single-aisle segment was 2.2% higher, from 13,030.
Forecast new wide-body deliveries in the region were cut by 10.8%, from 3,810 previously, and freighters were predicted to decline 22%, from 340 in 2019.
"Asia-Pacific traffic grew at 8.3% annually over the past decade, well above the worldwide traffic annual growth rate of 6.5%," Boeing said.
"The worldwide share of air travel intra-Asia in 2019 was 25% and this is expected to grow to 32% by 2039."
The Asia-Pacific in-service fleet was expected to more than double from 8,020 aircraft in 2019 to 18,770 by 2039. The forecast indicated that of the 17,485 new deliveries, some 61%, or 10,750 aircraft, would be for growth, with the remaining 6,735 for replacement of older aircraft.
The CMO said there were about 4,000 commercial aircraft worldwide that were 20 years old and the current downturn was expected to lead to the replacement of ageing aircraft. Examples are British Airways and the Qantas Group. They are bringing forward the retirement of their 747-400/400ER passenger fleet in response to the coronavirus pandemic.
"In the near term, the COVID-19 shock has shifted the focus to replacement after a decade of growth bias," the Boeing CMO said.
"In average years, 2%-3% of the airplane fleet retires annually. This rate has risen to 4%-5% in past industry downturns.
"This accelerated replacement cycle will position airlines for the future by improving the efficiency and sustainability of today's fleet."
Region 2019 2020
Asia Pacific 17,390 17,485
North America 9,310 8,995
Europe 8,990 8,810
Middle East 3,130 2,945
Latin America 2,960 2,610
Russia/Central Asia 1,280 1,250
Africa 1,160 1,015
Total 44,040 43,110
