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Boeing raises China market forecast
November 13th 2020
Boeing this week upgraded its forecast for new commercial aircraft orders from the China market in the next two decades, citing strong demand for air travel despite the near-term challenges posed by the coronavirus pandemic. Read More »
China was expected to require 8,600 new commercial aircraft between now and 2039, Boeing's 2020-2039 Current Market Outlook (CMO) said, up 6% from 8,090 deliveries in the 2019-2038 CMO.
“While COVID-19 has severely impacted every passenger market worldwide, China’s fundamental growth drivers remain resilient and robust,” Boeing Commercial Airplanes managing director for China marketing, Richard Wynne, said in a statement.
“Not only has China’s recovery from COVID-19 outpaced the rest of the world, but continued government investment in its transportation infrastructure, large regional traffic flows, and a flourishing domestic market mean this region of the world will thrive.”
The overall increase of 510 aircraft was underpinned by upward revisions to forecasts for regional jets, single aisle aircraft and freighters. But Boeing lowered †he expected number of wide-body deliveries to China.
The 8,600 figure comprised 380 regional jets, 6,450 single aisle aircraft, 1,590 wide-bodies and 180 freighters.
By contrast, the 8,090 forecast figure in the 2019-2038 CMO was 120 regional jets, 5,960 single aisle aircraft, 1,780 wide-bodies and 230 freighters.
Boeing said it reduced the market for wide-bodies due to an anticipated slower recovery in global long-haul traffic. Single-aisle aircraft such as the 737 or A320 would "continue to be the main driver of capacity growth".
The in-service fleet was forecast to increase from 3,930 aircraft in 2019 to 9,360 by 2039.
Boeing said China’s passenger market would post 5.5% annual growth in the next two decades, eclipsing the global average of 4%.
"In 20 years, the passenger traffic will be nearly three times the traffic that China experienced in 2019, with its growing economy and demographics powering traffic to nearly 20% of the world total," Boeing said.
The OEM said China would need 395,000 aviation professionals over the next 20 years – 118,000 commercial pilots, 156,000 cabin crew and 121,000 technicians.
It added the value of the commercial aviation services market on the Mainland would be US$1.73 trillion for the two decades, an increase of 7% from US$1.62 trillion in last year's CMO.
"The modifications and conversions market is expected to remain strong, driven by growing cargo, international trade and e-commerce," Boeing said.
While Boeing released its global CMO forecasts in October – which showed an 11% decline in deliveries compared with last year's forecasts – it did not release numbers for China until this week.
The company delivered 13 aircraft in the month, including a 777F freighter to China Cargo, down from 20 deliveries in October 2019.
There were no new orders in October but cancellations for 12 737 MAXs. Net orders for the 10 months to October 2020 stood at 1,020 aircraft.
