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Airbus forecasts resilient passenger growth; climate change drives demand for new aircraft
November 15th 2021
A burgeoning Asian middle class and the Chinese domestic market will help passenger traffic growth average 3.9% a year in the next two decades, said the latest market forecast from Airbus. Read More » Passenger traffic has demonstrated its resilience and will be driven by expanding economies and commerce around the globe, including tourism, the aviation OEM said. Airbus predicts the middle classes, who are the likeliest to fly, will grow by two billion people, to 63% of the world’s population, during this period. The fastest traffic growth is expected in Asia with domestic China becoming the largest market for air traffic. The European manufacturer also expects climate change repercussions as air transport companies progressively shift from fleet growth to the accelerated retirement of older, less fuel-efficient aircraft. The result, Airbus said, will be a need for some 39,000 new-build passenger and freighter aircraft to 2040-2041, slightly down on its previous forecast. Some 15,250 of those aircraft will be replacements, meaning that by 2040 the vast majority of commercial planes in service will the latest generation of available aircraft types, up from 13% today. “As economies and air transport matures, we see demand increasingly driven by replacement rather than growth,” said Airbus chief commercial officer Christian Scherer, who noted aircraft replacement was today’s most significant driver for decarbonisation. “The world is expecting more sustainable flying and this will be made possible in the short-term by the introduction of the most modern airplanes. Powering these new, efficient aircraft with Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) is the next big lever,” he said. The manufacturer predicts new aircraft demand will include 29,700 “small” planes such as the A220 and A320 families, about 5,300 “medium” aircraft including the A321XLR and the A330neo. It also forecasts about 4,000 large aircraft, such as the A350, will be required by the world’s airlines by 2040. It estimates the rise of e-commerce will drive a 4.7% annual growth rate in express freight and a 2.7% annual rise in the bigger general cargo market. This demand will prompt the need for about 2,440 freighters in the next two decades of which 880 will be new build planes. Commercial aviation services growth is on track to achieve a cumulative value of around US$4.8 trillion in the next 20 years, Airbus also forecast.
