China to top global air passenger demand, toppling North America’s decades of dominance

February 1st 2024

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By 2042, four of the world’s six largest air passenger markets will be in the Indo-Asia-Pacific, forecasts the Airport Council International annual World Airport Traffic Forecast (WATF) China will top the table followed by India (3), Indonesia (4) and Japan (5). Read More » Two decades from now, the U.S. will be global runner up after losing out to China. Also, Spain will slip from fourth to fifth position in the top 20 table, WATF said.

WATF analyzed data from 141 nations, introducing 29 countries to its information “to provide granular forecasts for passengers, air cargo volumes (in metric tonnes) and aircraft movements”.

ACI World Director General Luis Felipe de Oliveira said: “The projections indicate global passenger traffic will reach 9.7 billion by year-end 2024, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, indicating a doubling in air traffic by 2042 and a 2.5-fold increase over 2023 by 2052. Longer term, the global passenger market dynamic is predicted to transition from advanced economies to emerging and developing nations as they experience significant urbanization and population increases, often combined with rapid economic growth favorably impacting their disposable income and willingness to travel. Investing responsibly in new infrastructure remains critical to ensuring we can sustainably meet capacity growth to maximize the social and economic benefits of aviation,” the director general said.

• By the end of 2024, global passenger traffic is expected to reach 9.7 billion, surpassing 2019 for the first time since the outbreak of the pandemic.

• Global passenger traffic is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.3% from 2023 to 2042 and 3.6% from 2042 to 2052.

Top 20 markets for passenger traffic

• Global passenger numbers are forecast to approximately double from 2024 to 2042 and to be 2.5 times higher in 2052.

• By December 2024, international passenger traffic is forecast to approach the 4 billion mark and domestic passenger traffic to hit 5.7 billion.

• By 2042, international passenger traffic is predicted to reach 8.7 billion and domestic passenger traffic to be 10.6 billion.

Between 2023 and 2042, advanced economies are expected to have a CAGR of 3.2% for total passenger traffic and emerging and developing economies to achieve a more robust CAGR of 5.4%.

Sizeable population bases and rapid rises in incomes in emerging markets are the main economic engines driving air transportation demand. WATF said.