Comment
Taking too long
December 1st 2024
International Air Transport Association (IATA), director general, Willie Walsh, is angry. Read More » His member airlines are furious. And they have every right to be.
More than two years have passed since pandemic restrictions worldwide were lifted yet the aviation supply chain remains broken with expectations the situation could continue until the end of the decade.
Delayed aircraft deliveries, problems with new engines and shortages of components across the supply chain are no longer an inconvenience for airlines. They add up to disaster for airline planners.
Air travel is booming, but carriers do not have enough capacity to fly all the passengers that want to travel.
Airlines are so desperate to accommodate demand they are even leasing A380s, A340s and older fuel guzzling Boeing types that should long be retired. In such a heated demand environment, lease rates are now 30% above 2019 levels.
As Walsh puts it “supply chain issues are frustrating every airline with a triple whammy on revenues, costs and environmental performance”.
Another question.Does the reintroduction of older aircraft raise questions about safety?
IATA data shows the average aircraft age in 1990 was just over 12 years. In 2024, it has moved up to 14.8 years. The 1,254 aircraft delivered in 2024 are far fewer than the 1,813 airliners accepted by customers in 2018. The forecast 1,802 aircraft deliveries next year appears unrealistic.
The backlog for new aircraft has reached 17,000 planes, a record high. At present delivery rates, it will take 14 years to meet that target, double the six-year average backlog spanning 2013 to 2019.
In today’s world of digitalization and Artificial Intelligence (AI) you would think suppliers could quickly sort out their problems. Apparently not.
IATA is justified in investigating whether there is evidence aircraft and engine manufacturers and other players along the aviation supply chain are indulging in anti-competitive behaviour.
Given that many of these suppliers have a monopoly or are quasi-monopolistic players, why should they worry?
Are some of them are sitting back comfortable in the knowledge their airline customers have no choice but to wait and suffer while they have the option of raising prices because of unprecedented demand?
TOM BALLANTYNE
Associate editor and chief correspondent
Orient Aviation Media Group
