Crunch time for world’s airports

With air traffic forecast to double by 2040 already congested airports and air traffic services are under increasing pressure to cope with unceasing and expanding traffic, reports Associate editor and chief correspondent, Tom Ballantyne.

February 1st 2025

Print Friendly

It has become the daily norm. Read More » After a 10 to 12 hour flight from Asia to London, the region’s long-haul carriers frequently MUST circle southern England for lengthy periods before they are cleared to land, adding time and extra fuel costs to their journeys.

London Heathrow is not alone in operating at full capacity. Major hubs across Europe - Paris, Frankfurt and Amsterdam – as well as many in North America are congested, battling to handle the rising number of flights heading their way. And the situation will worsen rather than ease.

Asia’s airports are spending billions of dollars to expand their existing facilities or build new airports. But it is a different story in Europe and the U.S. where airport development is at a virtual standstill largely as a result of political and environmental issues.

Adding to the congestion, the long discussed plan to forge a single European Sky remains a pipedream, frustrating operations as airlines navigate the Continent’s multiple air traffic control regions.

Air travel demand is forecast to double by 2040, increasing at an annual average rate of 3.4%. Origin destination passengers, at around four billion in 2019, are forecast to be above eight billion at the end of the forecast horizon.

The Asia-Pacific will contribute more than half of this growth, supported by favourable demographics and higher household incomes. Regions with well-established aviation industries such as North America and Europe will continue to experience growth, but at a slower pace than elsewhere.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) foresees serious challenges in managing accelerated future capacity, especially in Europe.

“The crunch is coming - if it is not already here -worsened by the imposition of more capacity cuts by governments,” said IATA Head of Worldwide Airport Slots, John Middleton, at the airline association’s annual Global Media Day.

Unfortunately, airport capacity is not keeping up with potential growth in demand, he said. Airports are categorized as Level 1, 2 or 3. Airport capability at Level 1 is generally adequate to meet demand and no airport coordination is required.

At a Level 2 airport there is potential for congestion at some periods during the day, week or season and schedule adjustments are mutually agreed with the airlines. At a Level 3 airport, demand significantly exceeds the airport’s capability and it is necessary for all airlines and other aircraft operators to have a slot allocated by an independent slot coordinator to arrive or depart at the airport.

“There are a lot of ways you could look at that, but one is to track this is by the number of Level 2 and Level 3 airports there are. On average, there are approximately nine new Level 2 or Level 3 airports declared each year,” Middleton said.

“In addition, some of the existing Level 3 airports that have been Level 3 for some time are becoming more and more congested to the point where several super saturated airports are nearing 100% capacity the entire day.”

Airspace constraints can compound the issue. “Suffice to say airspace issues only increase the capacity challenge. They can make it impossible for airports to deliver 100% of theoretical capacity due to an inability for that traffic to be managed after it is actually up [in the air],” he said.

IATA warns the airport capacity crunch is threatening the freedom to travel and constraining economies. With little prospect of airport infrastructure keeping pace with growing demand, it has released a White Paper that argues slot regulations must incentivize airports to generate more capacity from existing infrastructure.

The number of airports unable to fully meet the demand for air connectivity and requiring slot coordination that uses the IATA Worldwide Airport Slot Guidelines has increased to nearly 400 worldwide. If current trends are sustained, this number could expand by 25% in the next decade.

An example of the severe consequences of this problem is Europe where Airports Council International (ACI) Europe forecasts airport infrastructure will not be able to meet up to 12% of demand in 2050.

With large scale airport developments, especially new runways, unlikely to be built due to political constraints, Europe’s competitiveness will be undermined. It is already under-performing.

“It is critical airports embrace best practices to deliver as much capacity as possible from existing infrastructure,” IATA’s SVP for Operations, Safety and Security, Nick Careen, said.

“The only cure for insufficient capacity is construction. But as long as large-scale endeavours such as building new runways or terminals remain politically out of reach in many parts of the world, we must squeeze every last unit of capacity out of the infrastructure we have,” he said.

“Some airports set strong benchmarks for maximizing capacity, but too many fail to follow the Worldwide Airport Slot Guidelines.”

IATA’s airport slots White Paper wants airports to have stronger obligations to maximize capacity. “Under the slot regulations, airlines are obliged to utilize the slots they are granted efficiently or face penalties for cancelling flights or not operating to schedule,” the White Paper said.

“Airports face no penalties if they do not deliver promised capacity. They have little pressure to meet global benchmarks on efficiency. Moreover, there is often insufficient transparency for the capacity declarations that they do make,” Careen said.

“This needs a major rebalancing so airports and airlines are equally obliged to maximize the potential social and economic value of airport capacity.”

IATA is urging slot regulations be revised to hold airports to account if they are not creating more capacity. Specifically, they should require airports to review their capacity declarations on a regular basis and implement a meaningful capacity consultation process to ensure greater transparency and reveal where potential capacity increases are being neglected.”

Airports Council International (ACI) World, which represents the world’s airports, acknowledges the challenge of meeting air traffic demand. “Airports worldwide, supported by ACI, are working diligently to increase the capacity of existing infrastructure and develop new facilities, which are essential components of addressing this challenge,” it said in response to the IATA White Paper.

It said IATA’s White Paper raises valid concerns about slot allocation, but it fails to provide a complete, accurate or balanced portrayal of the issue by placing undue blame solely on airports for inefficiencies in the current system.

“This narrow view ignores airlines’ own activities that lead to inefficient slot allocation and usage and distracts from the broader conversations and collaboration that are required to amend current slot principles and policies, which must evolve to adapt to current realities.”

Optimizing airport capacity utilization, including slot policy, is a multifaceted challenge that cannot be solved by airports alone, ACI said.

“The delivery of airport capacity is dependent on the coordinated actions of multiple stakeholders, including air traffic management, regulators, ground handlers, immigration and security screening services as well as factors such as weather and regulatory requirements.

“Airline operations also have a direct impact on airport capacity. These interdependencies must be factored into any discussion about optimizing capacity.

“Moreover, improving and expanding infrastructure to accommodate additional capacity requires significant investment. Airports have long advocated for the necessary funding to support these developments, including reasonable increases in airport charges. However, the airline industry has consistently opposed these efforts despite airport charges accounting on average only 4% of airlines’ total costs.

“The airline industry, which calls for increased capacity, remains resistant to funding the essential investments needed to achieve it.

“Efficient airport slot policy is a critical element in optimizing capacity.”

To accommodate the projected growth in air traffic, all aviation stakeholders must contribute and work collaboratively.

“Meeting future capacity demands requires collaboration,” said Darryl Dowd, Vice President, Safety, Security and Operations at ACI World. “Airports and airlines must work together to ensure fair and efficient slot allocation and usage, improved operations, and the necessary investments in infrastructure to support growth. ACI remains committed to fostering cooperation among stakeholders to deliver solutions that benefit passengers, economies, and the aviation ecosystem as a whole.”

While everyone agrees the challenge won’t be met without collaboration between all involved, unfortunately some governments are failing to help. For example, in December the Government of the Netherlands put forward a plan to cap flights at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol at 478,000 movements per year, in the latest step in a long-running saga over how to manage noise at one of Europe’s busiest airports.

The plan has been met with “incomprehension” by KLM Royal Dutch Airlines and IATA. In essence it would block Schiphol from coping with any growth demand for several years.

There has also been discussion for years about a third runway at London Heathrow. Finally it is being backed by the UK government.

The French government has abandoned plans to build a huge new terminal at Charles de Gaulle airport in Paris.

The multi-billion dollar plan to build a fourth terminal at the airport, the second busiest in Europe, was scrapped in 2021, described by French Ecology Minister Barbara Pompeii as a project that was now “obsolete”. A fourth terminal would have allowed the airport to handle up to 40 million extra passengers a year.

On a more optimistic note, IATA’s Walsh believes there will be no capacity crunch in the air. At present, an aircraft flying from A to B must follow a route that passes over specific waypoints.

“From a technological point of view we are not (going to have a capacity crunch in the air) because the technology exists for us to be able to operate with significantly more capacity in the air. What we need is a change in the regulatory environment. Technology has already provided us with the capability of flying in a much more efficient manner,” he said.

What we need though is to have greater freedom to operate in the sky, rather than everybody being forced to fly over the same points on the map, which was understandable fifty or sixty years ago when we required ground-based navigation aids to assist us in our navigation. We don’t need that anymore. I am less concerned about it because we know we have technology that can resolve that. What we need is an understanding on the part of regulators and governments that it requires a change in the way we operate and a regulatory environment that facilitates the opportunity that the technology gives us. I think that will happen”.

Overall, however, airport and airspace capacity remain a major challenge for the industry and one threatening to increase in coming years. Despite calls by aviation bodies for collaboration by all involved, including governments, history tells us how difficult that is to achieve.