Air Cargo
Industry shifting to post-COVID-19 survival strategies as forward bookings increase
November 1st 2020
Industry appraisal consultancy, IBA, reported at press time the global airline industry is shifting from managing the COVID-19 crisis to developing strategies for long-term survival. Read More »
Forward airline bookings for next year were recovering globally “partially bolstered by greater ease in securing [ticket refunds] along with the prospect of faster testing at airports” leading to the potential to deliver higher passenger volumes, it said.
“Aircraft utilization on domestic flights has progressed slowly back to 60% of pre-COVID-19 levels, led by a strong resurgence in the Chinese and Russian markets. However, load factor remains depressed and aircraft utilization on international flights is only 28% of pre-pandemic levels,” IBA’s industry intelligence platform, InsightIQ, said.
Failed airlines, mainly due to the virus, had led to the exit of 1,489 aircraft from the global airline fleet, but the numbers were reducing, the consultancy said.
“The rate of growth has slowed considerably since July with only nine airlines entering this position during this time compared with 32 carriers from February to July this year,” it said.
Aircraft being retired averaged an age of 20 years and included the 747, 767-300ER, MD 80-MD90 and also the A380, 340-600 and 777-200LR younger wide-bodies.
Aircraft values had suffered from an oversupply of airplanes in the depressed global industry with values for the 737NG and A320ceo varying by 20% from past levels. Younger types –A350, A320neo family, A330neo and the 787 – were doing better with a 10% drop in pricing.
Deliveries from the major OEMs, Airbus and Boeing, will decline by more than 50%, to 715, this year against 2019, IBA said. The European manufacturer is forecast to account for 68% of them. Boeing will lag behind, with 19% of global delivery share, largely from the huge impact of the 737MAX grounding on the company’s production schedule.
Chinese and North American carriers account for more half of the approximately 800 MAXs grounded from March 2019 or built but not delivered since then. IBA predicts the MAX will begin its return to service at scale from April to June next year, subject to the regulatory, production and airline demand situations at the time.
