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Asia-Pacific airline losses expected to drop sharply to US$2.4 billion in 2022
October 5th 2021
Asia-Pacific airline losses are forecast to fall from an estimated US$11.2 billion this year to $2.4 billion in 2022 as the region begins the long climb out of the COVID crisis. Read More » The figures are part of wider International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates released overnight that predict airline global net losses will decline from $51.8 billion this year to $11.6 billion in 2022. IATA noted the Asia-Pacific continued to suffer some of the industry’s most draconian travel restrictions. “While there has been some alleviation in restrictions, significant improvements in international markets are not expected until later in 2022,’’ it said. “Reduced losses are expected to be achieved on the back of large and largely open domestic markets, not least of which is China. The region’s carriers also are benefitting disproportionally from the strength of air cargo markets in which they are dominant.” The figures released at the IATA annual general meeting and World Air Transport Summit in Boston underscore the devastation wrought by the pandemic on the industry. Estimates for the global net 2020 loss were increased from $126.4 billion to $137.7 billion, meaning total industry losses for 2020-2022 are expected to top $200 billion. Overall revenues are expected to increase this year by 26.7% to $472 billion, or about the level reached in 2009, and then to $658 billion next year. Worldwide demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres, is expected to stand at 40% of 2019 levels for 2021, rising to 61% in 2022. Domestic demand growth will outpace the international increase and is forecast to reach 93% of pre-crisis levels next year. Total passenger numbers are expected to reach 2.3 billion in 2021 and grow to 3.4 billion in 2022. This is similar to 2014 levels but well below the 4.5 billion air passengers carried in 2019. Global cargo figures provide some relief with 2021 demand 7.9% above 2019 levels, growing to 13.2% above the same levels in 2022. But there is bad news in terms of fuel costs. After falling to $46.60 a barrel in 2020, jet kerosene rose to $74.50 per barrel in 2021 and is tipped to average $77.80 a barrel in 2022. IATA director-general, Willie Walsh, said the magnitude of the COVID crisis for airlines had been enormous but the industry was well past its deepest point. “While serious issues remain, the path to recovery is coming into view,’’ he said. “Aviation is demonstrating its resilience yet again.”
