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Global airline industry commits to net- zero carbon emissions by 2050
October 5th 2021
An overnight vote by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) to commit to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 places a heavy reliance on sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). Read More » The industry commitment to net-zero emissions was a significant shift from its previous target and will require the mitigation of 1.8 gigatons of carbon in 2050 and 21.2 gigatons between now and mid-century. IATA’s current scenario is that SAF will provide 65% of the abatement while headline-grabbing technologies such as hydrogen and electric aircraft will account for another 13%. Efficiency improvements will bring in about 3% and offsets, carbon capture and storage will account for another 19%. The association said it had deliberately taken a conservative view on technology improvements and acknowledged the mix could change if there was breakthrough. It said a key immediate enabler would be the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), which would stabilize international emissions at 2019 levels in the short to medium term. The strategy’s reliance on SAF will require a commitment from governments and producers as well as airlines. SAF production is expected to reach 7.9 billion litres, or 2% of the total fuel requirement, by 2025, but IATA estimated it would need to hit 449 billion litres annually by 2050. IATA director-general, Willie Walsh, acknowledged there would be those who will say the industry faced impossible numbers and technical challenges. But aviation had a history of realizing the impossible, he said. “The recently announced U.S. Grand Challenge to increase the supply of SAF to 11 billion litres (3 billion gallons) by 2030 is a great example of the kinds of policies that will drive aviation sustainability, ’’ he said. “Similarly, the announcements from several big energy suppliers that they intend to produce billions of extra litres of SAF in the near term are welcome. But we cannot tolerate announcements with no follow-up. To be meaningful, fuel suppliers must be accountable for delivering SAF at cost competitive prices.”
