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Fitch Ratings says global airline traffic growth is slower than expected; predicts an acceleration in 2020
December 2nd 2021
A slow rebound in international traffic and constrained business travel are impeding the recovery in global air traffic, according to an analysis by Fitch Ratings. Read More » The U.S, agency reduced its 2021 and 2022 expectations for global revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), but said this week it still expected an accelerating pace of recovery into 2023 thanks to increasing rates of vaccination, more coronavirus treatment options and easing border restrictions. “We expect adoption of endemic-style approaches to living with the virus, pent-up demand, global economic growth and supportive governmental travel policies to push air traffic back toward pre-pandemic levels in the next two years,’’ Fitch said. “However, new, highly contagious variants, such as Omicron, highlight the likelihood operating conditions remain volatile and the downside risk to forecasts. While it is too early to assess the effects of the Omicron [variant], additional waves of infections and policy responses could lead to travel restrictions and stalled or temporary declines in traffic.” The ratings agency projected Global RPKs would be approximately 55%, 30% and 10% below pre-pandemic levels in 2021, 2022 and 2023, respectively. However, it warned these numbers will vary across regions.
