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Air passenger traffic to recover in 2024: IATA update
March 2nd 2022
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects overall traveller numbers to reach four billion in 2024 - counting multi-sector connecting trips as one passenger – calculated to reach 103% of 2019 levels in the forecast time frame. Read More »
IATA said the overall picture presented in its updated long-term forecast is unchanged from its November forecast issued before the Omicron outbreak.
“The trajectory for the recovery in passenger numbers from COVID-19 was not changed by the Omicron variant. People want to travel. When travel restrictions are lifted, they will return to the skies. There is still a long way to go to reach a normal state of affairs, but the forecast for the evolution in passenger numbers gives good reason to be optimistic,” said IATA director general, Willie Walsh.
“The biggest and most immediate drivers of passenger numbers are the restrictions governments place on travel. Fortunately, more governments have understood travel restrictions have little to no long-term impact on the spread of a virus. And the economic and social hardship caused for very limited benefit is simply no longer acceptable in a growing number of markets. As a result, the progressive removal of restrictions is giving a much needed boost to the prospects for travel,” Walsh said.
“In general, we are moving in the right direction, but there are some concerns. The Asia-Pacific is the laggard of the recovery. While Australia and New Zealand have announced measures to reconnect with the world, China is showing no signs of relaxing its zero-COVID strategy. The resulting localized lockdowns in its domestic market are depressing global passenger numbers even as other major markets like the U.S. are largely back to normal.”
More broadly in the region, the “slow removal of international travel restrictions and the likelihood of renewed domestic restrictions during COVID outbreaks mean traffic to/from/within the Asia- Pacific will reach 68% of 2019 levels in 2022, the weakest outcome of the main regions, IATA said, with above 2019 levels predicted to be recovered in the region by 2025 at 109% of pre-COVID levels”.
