Global shortfall of 55,000 cockpit crew predicted by 2030

Concerns about a global pilot shortage are nothing new. It was a hot topic pre-pandemic. COVID brought a hiatus to the discussion. But with recovery underway forecasts of a shortfall in cockpit crew have re-emerged. Associate editor and chief correspondent, Tom Ballantyne, reports.

April 1st 2023

Print Friendly

OAG chief analyst travel and aviation data, John Grant, puts it bluntly. Read More » Quietly lurking in the background of the post-pandemic recovery is one of the most worrying shortages in the aviation industry – pilots. “While the glamour of apparently great salaries, stopovers in exotic locations and significant fringe benefits, including a uniform and seemingly endless upgrades when traveling, may appear attractive, the aviation industry faces a crisis in the next decade and there appears to be few solutions,” he said.

Estimates vary about the extent of the pilot shortage and when it will cause problems. In broad terms, analysis settles around a shortage of about 55,000 pilots by 2030 with mature markets such as North America and emergent regions such as the Asia-Pacific equally affected, he said.

Grant is not alone in his forecast. The Avia Solutions group cites aviation surveys and reports by leading aviation bodies in 2022 which predicted an imminent pilot shortage. “These incredible predictions were chiefly informed by the state of the aviation industry, characterized by massive staff layoffs and grounded operations, which left many pilots with no option but to seek alternative income to sustain their lives,” Avia said.

“However, with the rebound in global passenger travel from the first to the last quarter of 2022 and into 2023, many airlines continue to struggle with high pilot demand and deficits in pilot supply, starting in Asia and the Pacific, North America and the Middle East and Europe.”

Indeed, another data provider, Statista, has projected that by 2029, the Asia-Pacific will be experiencing the biggest pilot shortage in the world, with more than 22,000 pilots needed to fill demand at the region’s airlines. Alarmingly, there is a view this assessment is significantly underestimating demand.

Avia Solutions forecasts that in Asia and the Pacific, anticipated pilot demand may produce a deficit of about 111,000 pilots. India alone will require close to 7,000 pilots to operate around 500 aircraft due to arrive in the country by the end of the decade.

Several factors are driving the shortage. Firstly, the pandemic itself led to tens of hundreds of pilots being made redundant. A 2021 survey found 55% of pilots globally planned to change jobs in the ensuing twelve months.

Secondly, in Grant’s view, a ticking time bomb was looming. In many markets, pilots must retire at 65 and in some cases at 60. More than 60% of the world’s pilots are aged over 40, which is “a heavy concentration of resources heading for an armchair, especially when compared with other industries and professions”, Grant said.

And while a steady expansion of pilot training facilities in the Asia-Pacific will feed airlines with new pilots, it will be years before new cockpit crew will have the experience to replace experienced veteran pilots.

Finally, the pandemic put the brakes on airline growth, but it has resumed with a vengeance this year. Airlines are returning planes to the air and are ordering new jets by the hundreds. Carriers are scheduled to accept delivery of 1,540 new aircraft this year alone, an increase of 300 airplanes from 1,240 deliveries in 2022, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) reports, citing Cirium figures.

“On current estimates, aircraft deliveries are forecast to surpass 2019 levels for the first time since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic The Asia-Pacific fleet will represent 24% of all deliveries this year, mainly to airlines in China and India, behind Europe (27%) and North America (33%, it said.

In the midst of this, the Asia-Pacific is suffering less from the crew pilot shortage than other regions worldwide. It has lagged behind its peers elsewhere because of prolonged travel restrictions in many countries in the region where airline traffic levels are still hovering around 60% of pre-COVID levels, although the recovery is speeding up now China has re-opened its border.

And there is another factor at play in the region. Many major airlines in the Asia-Pacific did not resort to pilot lay-offs. Government assistance also helped many carriers in the region with subsidies and loans that allowed them to retain staff, including cockpit crew.

An example: Japanese and Korean airlines did not cut pilot numbers during COVID-19. Singapore Airlines (SIA) also retained a large number of pilots throughout the pandemic, mindful it would need them to support the ramp-up of operations when travel restrictions eased.

A report by analysts CAPA late last year explained: “North Asian airlines did not make many workforce cuts, which will be a benefit during recovery. While many Asia-Pacific airlines cut pilot numbers, Japan’s major airlines kept their pilot workforces relatively intact. All Nippon Airways (ANA) and Japan Airlines (JAL) did not reduce their workforces due to the pandemic, although some of JAL’s employees were assigned to work temporarily in other industries in Japan where there was demand for staff.

“ANA has maintained its pilot recruitment throughout the pandemic. Although borders have been slower to reopen fully in Japan, these airlines should have fewer pilot supply issues than some other airlines. Korean Air also did not make any workers redundant, but it did require temporary paid leave. The airline has said it has pilots to serve its network as it resumes full schedule flying. It also expects to have the cockpit crew necessary to keep pace with mid-term to long- term demand growth.”

CAPA agrees pilot supply was one of the major long-term issues facing the airline industry before COVID-19. “The pandemic period stalled growth, and in many cases caused a hiring hiatus,” it said.

“But now, as Asia-Pacific airlines are restoring their international operations, pilot supply is returning to the top of the priority list. Airlines are spooling up their recruitment and training to account for short-term and long-term expansion.”

Most of the region’s big airlines appear confident they can cope. Cathay Pacific Airways, one carrier hit hard during the pandemic, is hiring 700 pilots through this year. It has resumed its cadet pilot training program, with the aim of training more than 1,000 cadet pilots by 2025. Singapore Airlines also has resumed recruitment of cadets and direct-entry first and second officers. It contacted Singapore-based cadet pilots who had their training disrupted by the pandemic and resumed their training progressively from October last year. AirAsia also has brought back all furloughed pilots.

Close to press time, Airport Authority Hong Kong signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Hong Kong International Aviation Academy (HKIAA) to establish a pilot training program in partnership with Hong Kong Airlines. The Mainland controlled long-haul carrier will outsource its pilot training to government funded HKIAA as part of the agreement.

“That the HKIAA will seek partnerships with Mainland flying schools is definitively a positive step to integrating with the aviation sector in Guangdong province. Previously, we did not have this kind of training cooperative arrangement,” Chinese University Aviation and Policy Research Centre senior advisor, Law Cheung-kwok, told the South China Morning Post.

In a media statement issued in the first week of April, AAHK said: “By partnering with Hong Kong Airlines, the academy expects a substantial increase in the number of pilots and aims to make a significant contribution to aviation in Hong Kong and on the Mainland.”

HKIAA plans to partner with universities in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) and flying schools overseas as well as the Mainland. There remains a significant difference between pilot training courses in the HKSAR and China - the fees and costs for cadet pilots are lower on the Mainland than in Hong Kong.

Separately, in 2022, the Cathay Pacific Group inaugurated its new pilot cadet training program with Hong Kong Poly University where chosen cadets complete ground school training in Hong Kong before they advance to flight training at the airline group’s schools outside Hong Kong.

Australian’s Qantas Group and Virgin Australia, which reduced their pilot workforce early in the pandemic, have said their pilot numbers are adequate for operations.

In the Middle East, Emirates Airline is investing $135 million in an extension to its flight training center in Dubai, to be ready for operation from 2024. By the end of 2024, Emirates will have 17 flight simulators. It has increased its training capacity by more than 50% in less than two years, partly to accommodate fleet expansion and conversion, but also to facilitate local recruitment.

Ultimately, said Grant, airlines will have to employ more pilots and carry more operational costs than previously the case as salaries increase and more pilots join airlines around the world. These costs are not likely to be absorbed by the airlines but passed onto the traveler in increased airfares. It may only equate to a few more dollars per flight and for most people it will be an acceptable price to pay. What it also confirms is that even in the most technical and advanced industries the price of skilled workers cannot be undervalued.

Avia’s Ziemelis warns as global airlines deal with accelerating air travel demand, pilot demand will outstrip current supply in many regional aviation markets in the next two years, with the trend continuing to manifest and worsen in the next decade. “The expanding gap between pilot demand and market supply could increase competition between airlines, with some embarking on contract re-negotiations and implementing pay increases to maintain their pilot workforce,” he said.

“While offering more oversized compensation packages may not adequately address the problem, such measures may eat into the airlines’ profit margins, reducing their net returns.”

Taking flying to the high school desk The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has granted the U.S.’s Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University US$485,000 to fund expansion of its free high school courses for aspiring aviators and engineers Southern U.S-based Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, which has campuses in Florida’s Daytona Beach and Preston in Arizona, will use funds to offer more high schools with free courses for students interested in joining the aerospace industry. With the goal of addressing the forecast worldwide shortage of pilots, drone operators and engineers, the FAA and Embry-Riddle will invest the funds in aerospace education in high schools, especially in remote areas, and will equip its training classrooms with desk top flight training devices, small drones, 3D printers and virtual reality systems.