Asia’s emerging middle class driving airline growth

June 1st 2023

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Avolon’s World Fleet Forecast, Return to Growth, has forecast the world’s commercial passenger aviation fleet will almost double (94%) from 24,180 aircraft in 2022 to 44,300 in 2042. Read More »

The lessor estimates more than US$4 trillion will be required to finance these new commercial passenger aircraft.

Passenger demand will continue to rise by 3.5% per year from a 2019 base, the forecast said, but the pace of expansion will be lower than the 5%-6% of the previous 20 years, due to reduced potential for deregulation to drive growth and higher fares from aircraft supply shortages and increasing sustainability levies, Avolon said.

The biggest growth driver will be new middle class consumers, particularly in India, Southeast Asia and Latin America.

Regions to record the largest increases in air travel to 2042 will be India (4.4%), China (3.7%), Asia (5%) and Latin America (4.9%). Mature markets such as North America (2%) and Europe (3.1%) will continue to grow, although at a more moderate rate.

About 21,600 aircraft will exit the passenger fleet through decommissioning at the end of their economic life or freighter conversion. An estimated 95% of the global fleet will have transitioned to new technology fuel efficient aircraft by the end of the forecast period, Avolon forecasts.

Avolon CEO, Andy Cronin, said: “Emerging markets and their growing middle class underpin our forecast of continued expansion of the global fleet. Near-term production constraints will remain a feature and will reward those who have secured their order book pipeline.”

Avolon chief risk officer and co-author of the report, Jim Morrison, predicted “the pace of growth in demand for travel will moderate, but increasing GDP per capita will drive the global fleet to nearly double by 2042. Delivering on sustainability commitments is an imperative to secure aviation’s continued growth. Fleet renewal, scaling sustainable aviation fuel production and the development of transformational new aircraft designs will be capital intensive.”