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OCTOBER 2019

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波音公司预测中国客流量将激增

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by 副主编兼首席记者包乐天(TOM BALLANTYNE)报导  

October 1st 2019

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不论本土的情况如何,而尽管中国大陆机队的增长率将会较2018年的预期为慢,波音公司对中国市场长远的飞机销售预测维持乐观。 Read More »

波音民用飞机集团的市场副总裁兰迪·廷斯上个月在北京表示,预料中国的航空公司将需要总值接近1.3万亿美元共8,090架新飞机,以满足尤其在往返中国二线城市方面急速上升的客运需求。经修订后的预测比去年高出5.2%。

预期中国在未来二十年的航空客运量增长率,将由之前预测的每年6.2%调低至6%。廷斯表示,这增长速度仍高于南亚、欧洲和北美。

廷斯说:「去年中国成为我们的最大市场。持续壮大的中等收入阶层、对基础设施的大量投资,以及先进技术使飞机的能和效率大为提升,继续推动市场上对航空旅游的庞大需求。」

到2023年,中国各地将会有八个新机场落成,包括这个月在北京启用的大兴国际机场。波音公司表示,未来五年,连接中国二线城市航班的复合年增长率将达11.3%,远高于连接主要内陆枢纽和国内较小城市的航班数量。

廷斯说,就二线城市的的长程国际航班而言,过去五年的年增长率为35%。今年,中国的航空公司营运132条直飞的国际航线,占全球市场的65%。

波音公司预测在未来二十年,中国将需要5,960架新单行通道客机。至2038年,对宽体客机的需求量会是现时全国机队的三倍。还有,预测中国将需要大量支线飞机和货运机。

波音民用飞机集团表示,亚太地区在此期间的航空公司将需要总值约2.83亿美元共17,390架飞机。区内的新机队将分为窄体(75%)、宽体(22%)、支线飞机(1%)和货机(2%)。

波音表示亚太地区的航空公司到2038年为止,每年最少需要新招聘12,000名飞行员、12,450名技术员,和16,150名空中服务员。

波音民用飞机集团预测在未来二十年,全球的航空机队将需要44,000架新飞机,价值6.8万亿美元。单行通道客机将占总订单的74%(32,420架)、宽体机占19%(8,340)、支线飞机占5%(2,240架)、货机占2%(1,040架)。

尽管贸易局势紧张,中国内地的中国商飞(COMAC)仍看好国内市场
中国商用飞机有限责任公司预测,至2038年国内的航空公司将拥有10,344架飞机。
《2019-2038年民用飞机市场预测报告》于上个月的北京中国国际航空博览会上发布,称在未来二十年内,中国的航空公司将增加6,119架新的120座位窄体飞机、2,128架新的250多座的宽体飞机,还有提供给国家机队958架新的50多座支线飞机。基于2018年的官方指导价,扩展机队的预算成本是1.4万亿美元。
至2038年,中国的客运收益公里数(RPK)将达到4.08万亿,占全球RPK的21%。预计全球未来二十年的机队年增长率为4.3%。

 

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